Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
